Thanksgiving football is a tradition older than many of the stadiums the games are played in.
People gather around the TV with plates full of food, families pause their arguments for three hours, and every year the NFL gives us drama that feels scripted — but isn’t.
And this year?
The feeling around the league is different.
There’s tension.
There’s uncertainty.
And more importantly… there’s opportunity.
Thanksgiving has always been a home for shocking outcomes, but the 2024 season has set up a holiday slate that feels almost engineered for chaos. The favorites look uneasy. The underdogs are suddenly showing teeth. Momentum is shifting at exactly the wrong time for the “safe” picks and exactly the right time for the unpredictable ones.
If you’re expecting calm, comfortable, one-sided football — you’re watching the wrong day of the calendar.
This Thanksgiving has big upset energy, and here’s why.
1. Thanksgiving Is Never a Normal NFL Week
The NFL is a rhythm-based sport. Teams live off routine. Coaches live off repetition. Players rely on patterns — Monday recovery, Tuesday film, Wednesday install, Thursday polish.
Thanksgiving week ruins all of that.
Short Week = Messy Football
Teams only get a few days to prepare. That means:
- Less film study
- Less practice time
- Less rest
- More fatigue
- More mental errors
Every year, we see the effects. Timing is off. Communication breaks down. Offenses struggle to adjust. And the teams with big, complex playbooks — often the league favorites — suffer the most.
Meanwhile, the underdogs?
They usually run simpler systems.
Simple systems thrive on short weeks.
National TV Pressure Is Its Own Beast
Some players love the spotlight.
Some shrink under it.
Thanksgiving games are watched by people who don’t normally watch football sport. The stage is bigger, the lights feel brighter, and the mistakes feel heavier.
Favorites carry the expectation of dominance.
Underdogs carry the freedom of having nothing to lose.
That imbalance is the heartbeat of every Thanksgiving shocker.
2. The Favorites Look Less Like Giants and More Like Targets
Every Thanksgiving slate has “that” team — the one people expect to steamroll their opponent. But this season, those big-name teams aren’t looking as invincible as social media makes them seem.
Offensive Inconsistency Is Setting Up Disaster
Some top-ranked offenses have become strangely unpredictable.
One week they score effortlessly, the next week they look completely out of sync.
This inconsistency shows up in:
- Messy opening drives
- Slow first halves
- Bad red-zone decision-making
- Turnovers in crucial moments
- Failure to adjust mid-game
On Thanksgiving, slow starts are deadly.
You fall behind early?
Good luck trying to recover on a day where the rhythm of the game is different.
Defensive Fatigue Is Catching Up
It’s late in the season. Bodies are tired. Tackles hurt more than they did in Week 2. Defensive fronts are losing the trench wars they once dominated.
Tired defenses give up big plays.
Big plays create momentum.
And momentum fuels upsets.
3. The Underdogs Are Peaking at the Perfect Time
It’s impossible to have an upset without a hidden rise — and this year the underdogs aren’t just surviving… they’re building momentum.
They’ve Found Their Identity
Underdog teams often spend the first half of the season figuring out who they are. But right now many of them seem to have discovered:
- A reliable ground game
- A quicker passing attack
- Smarter play-calling
- Healthier lineups
- Strong locker-room chemistry
Thanksgiving rewards teams with identity.
This year, the underdogs have one.
Some favorites still don’t.
Young Defensive Players Are Taking Over
Thanksgiving is often the day a young player becomes a household name.
Underdog defenses, in particular, are getting faster, hungrier, and more aggressive.
Loose, energetic defenses are a nightmare matchup for heavily favored teams. They blitz more, gamble more, and disrupt timing that elite quarterbacks depend on.
When a favorite loses rhythm, the entire game collapses.
4. Quarterback Pressure Is the Real Upset Alarm
If you want to know who’s going to win a Thanksgiving game, don’t look at the greatest highlight of the quarterback — look at the worst habit.
Under pressure, every quarterback has a flaw:
- Some drift too far back in the pocket
- Some stare down receivers
- Some panic and force throws
- Some freeze on blitzes
- Some take unnecessary sacks
This matters because short weeks create sloppy offensive-line play.
Less practice = worse protection.
When a quarterback doesn’t trust his line?
Upset alert.
Every. Single. Time.
5. The Running Game Will Decide a Lot This Year
Thanksgiving football is physical football. The cold weather, the short turnaround, the increased spotlight all combine to elevate the importance of running the ball.
Run-heavy teams thrive because:
- They control the pace
- They keep the ball out of opponent hands
- They tire out already-fatigued defenses
- They reduce turnover risk
- They create play-action opportunities
Several underdog teams this year have recently upgraded their run game with better blocking, healthier backs, and simplified schemes.
Favorites that struggle against the run are in real danger.
6. Emotion Is the X-Factor Nobody Calculates
Stats matter.
Film matters.
Strategy matters.
But emotion?
Emotion can flip a game that should never flip.
Thanksgiving games come with emotional storylines:
- Revenge games
- “Prove everyone wrong” games
- Career-defining moments
- National TV introductions
- Pressure-free performances
Many underdogs walk into Thanksgiving knowing it’s the one game the entire country is watching.
That motivation is powerful.
It changes the way players attack each snap.
Meanwhile, some favorites walk in overconfident — and nothing fuels an upset faster than a team that thinks it cannot lose.
7. Late-Season Trends Are Working Against the Favorites
As the season wears on, something becomes clear: teams aren’t the same in November as they were in September.
On Thanksgiving, the trend lines start revealing the truth.
Turnover Issues Are Becoming a Pattern
Several “strong” teams are quietly becoming turnover machines.
Thanksgiving magnifies those mistakes because the pace is faster, the pressure is heavier, and every possession matters more.
Defense-Optional Football Is Creeping In
Favorites that relied on strong defenses early in the season are now giving up explosive plays. Sloppy tackling and tired legs create opportunities for underdogs to take big shots they normally wouldn’t take.
Offenses Are Becoming Predictable
Season fatigue hits coaches too. Some play-callers stick to safe scripts. On Thanksgiving, safe play-calling is how favorites lose.
Underdogs, on the other hand, become bold:
- Trick plays
- Deep shots
- Fourth-down gambles
- Unexpected blitzes
- Heavy aggression
Bold teams win on Thanksgiving.
8. Coaching Decisions Will Create the Chaos
Thanksgiving games are where coaching mistakes explode.
Poor timeouts.
Bad fourth-down choices.
Slow adjustments.
Conservative play-calling.
Misunderstanding momentum.
One wrong decision on Thanksgiving feels bigger than normal because the energy in the stadium is different. Underdog coaches tend to coach fearlessly because they know nobody expects them to win.
Favorites often coach not to lose — and that is the biggest trap of all.
9. Special Teams Will Swing At Least One Game
Every Thanksgiving game has at least one “what just happened?” moment on special teams:
- A muffed punt
- A long kick return
- A blocked field goal
- A fake that backfires
- A kick gone sideways
Short preparation weeks affect special teams more than offense or defense.
The timing is off.
The coverage lanes aren’t clean.
The chemistry isn’t perfect.
And all it takes is one mistake for an underdog to turn the entire game upside down.
10. Why This Year Feels Different
All the patterns that normally create surprises on Thanksgiving are amplified this season:
- Tired favorites
- Rising underdogs
- Quarterbacks under pressure
- Defenses collapsing late
- Momentum shifting fast
- Coaches getting conservative
- Special teams struggling
- Run games becoming dominant
- Short-week chaos
- Emotional stakes rising
If you combine all of these, you get something rare:
A Thanksgiving schedule built for shock value.
This isn’t just another holiday slate.
This is the kind of lineup where one game — maybe even two — are destined to swing wildly in directions nobody expects.
11. What Fans Should Prepare For
If you’re watching for background noise while eating dinner, fine.
But if you’re watching like a real fan, here’s what you should expect:
Expect one of the “best” teams to start slow.
Thanksgiving punishes sluggish offenses.
Expect an underdog defense to force a huge turnover.
Someone will jump a route or strip a fumble that changes the game.
Expect at least one star player to struggle early.
Spotlight pressure is real.
Expect a young player to become a breakout name.
Thanksgiving always produces a surprise hero.
Expect at least one game to be closer than it has any business being.
It happens every single year.
Expect the unexpected — because this year, it’s practically guaranteed.
The Upset Storm Is Brewing
Thanksgiving football is unpredictable by nature, but this season has the perfect ingredients for something truly memorable.
Favorites are wobbling.
Underdogs are gathering momentum.
The schedule is tight.
The pressure is high.
The emotional stakes are through the roof.
This isn’t just another Thanksgiving.
This is the Thanksgiving where an upset feels less like a possibility and more like an incoming storm.
When the plates are cleared and the games begin, don’t be surprised if the scoreboard tells a story nobody predicted.
